2020 United States presidential election in Maine - Wikipedia

2020 United States presidential election in Maine

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Turnout78%Increase
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 3 1
First round 435,072 360,737
Percentage 53.09% 44.02%

Maine Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
2020 United States presidential election in Maine - Results by congressional district.svg

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. In the 2016 election, Maine split its vote for the first time since 1828, awarding one electoral vote to Trump as he got the most votes in Maine's 2nd congressional district.[3]

Maine became the first state to use ranked-choice voting for a presidential general election, with voters able to rank their preferred candidates on the ballot.[4]

Biden performed strongly with college-educated[5] and high income voters to win Maine.[6]

Maine weighed in for this election as 5% more Democratic than the national average.

Primary elections[edit]

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary[edit]

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus he received all of Maine's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]

2020 Maine Republican presidential primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Donald Trump 95,360 83.85 22
Blank ballots 18,368 16.15 0
Total 113,728 100% 22

Democratic primary[edit]

In an electoral upset, moderate candidate Joe Biden won the state, which primary opponent Bernie Sanders previously won in 2016.

2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary[10]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[11]
Joe Biden 68,729 33.37 11
Bernie Sanders 66,826 32.45 9
Elizabeth Warren 32,055 15.57 4
Michael Bloomberg 24,294 11.80
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] 4,364 2.12
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] 2,826 1.37
Tulsi Gabbard 1,815 0.88
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] 696 0.34
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] 313 0.15
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[b] 218 0.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 201 0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 183 0.09
Blank ballots 3,417 1.66
Total 205,937 100% 24

Libertarian nominee[edit]

  • Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

Green nominee[edit]

Alliance nominee[edit]

General election[edit]

Ballot access[edit]

Libertarian[edit]

The Libertarian Party was recognized by Maine as an official party in June 2016 but lost that status in December 2018. To qualify for ballot access, Jorgensen was required to submit 4,000 petition signatures to the state by August 3. Jorgensen sued the state for a reduction of the signature requirement, citing an increase in the difficulty of petitioning caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.[12] Jorgensen was successful in appearing on the ballot.

Final predictions[edit]

Source Ranking (statewide) Ranking (1st) Ranking (2nd)
The Cook Political Report[13] Likely D Solid D Tossup
Inside Elections[14] Solid D Solid D Tossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Likely D Safe D Lean R
Politico[16] Likely D Solid D Tossup
RCP[17] Lean D Likely D Tossup
Niskanen[18] Safe D Safe D Likely R
CNN[19] Solid D Solid D Tossup
The Economist[20] Safe D Not given Not given
CBS News[21] Likely D Likely D Tossup
270towin[22] Likely D Safe D Tossup
ABC News[23] Solid D Solid D Tossup
NPR[24] Likely D Likely D Tossup
NBC News[25] Likely D Solid D Tossup
538[26] Likely D Solid D Tossup

Polling[edit]

Graphical summary (statewide)[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270 to Win October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 51.8% 40.2% 8.0% Biden +11.6
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.3% 40.3% 6.4% Biden +13.0
Average 53.1% 40.3% 7.2% Biden +12.3

Statewide polls[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
Change Research Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 1,024 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 52% 4% 2% 1%[e] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,274 (LV) ± 4% 42%[f] 56%
Emerson College Oct 29–31, 2020 611 (LV) ± 3.9% 43%[g] 54% 2%[h]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,995 (LV) 43% 56%
SurveyUSA/FairVote Oct 23–27, 2020 1,007 (LV) ± 3.7% 40%[i] 53% 2% 2% 1%[j] 2%
42%[k] 55% 1%[l] 2%
Colby College Oct 21–25, 2020 879 (LV) ± 3.3% 38% 51% 4%[m] 8%
Pan Atlantic Research Oct 2–6, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 40% 50% 6%[n] 4%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020 466 (LV) ± 4.4% 40%[i] 51% 3% 1% 2%[o] 3%
40%[p] 52% 5%[q] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 729 (LV) 38% 60% 2%
Data for Progress (D) Sep 23–28, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.7% 39%[i] 53% 2% 1% 5%
41%[r] 55% 4%
Colby College Sep 17–23, 2020 847 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 50% 4%[s] 6%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe Sep 17–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 39%[i] 51% 1% 0% 1%[t] 7%
39%[k] 51% 2%[u] 8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 11–16, 2020 663 (LV) ± 5.1% 38%[v] 55% 0% 0% 1%[w] 6%[x]
Quinnipiac University Sep 10–14, 2020 1,183 (LV) ± 2.9% 38% 59% 0%[y] 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 54% 1%[z] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 502 (LV) 37% 61% 1%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020 453 (LV) 38% 45% 11%[aa] 6%
Quinnipiac University Archived August 7, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 805 (RV) ± 3.7% 37% 52% 6%[ab] 4%
RMG Research Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 39% 50% 7%[ac] 4%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 866 (LV) 42%[i] 49% 1% 1% 7%
43%[ad] 53% 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 733 (LV) 41% 57% 1%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[A] Jul 23–24, 2020 962 (V) 42% 53% 5%
Colby College/SocialSphere Jul 18–24, 2020 888 (RV) ± 3.9% 38% 50% 5%[ae] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jul 2–3, 2020 1,022 (V) ± 3.1% 42% 53% 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 202 (LV) 46% 51% 3%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 52% 6%
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 42% 54% 4%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP Jul 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 50% 5%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 54%

Maine's 1st congressional district[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

Aggregate polls[edit]

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270 to Win October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 57.8% 35.0% 7.2% Biden +22.8
Real Clear Politics September 17 – October 6, 2020 October 30, 2020 56.7% 34.3% 9.0% Biden +22.4

with Donald Trump and Joe Biden[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
Change Research Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 549 (LV) 35% 56% 4% 3%
Emerson College Oct 29–31, 2020 310 (LV) 39% 58% 3%[af] 1%
SurveyUSA/FairVote Oct 23–27, 2020 498 (LV) 35%[i] 59% 2% 2% 1%[j] 2%
36%[k] 61% 1%[l] 2%
Colby College Oct 21–25, 2020 426 (LV) 34% 56% 4%[m] 7%
Pan Atlantic Research Oct 2–6, 2020 300 (LV) ± 6.4% 37% 54% 7%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020 232 (LV) 30% 62% 3% 1% 2%[ag] 3%
Colby College Sep 17–23, 2020 416 (LV) 36% 54% 5%[ah] 5%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe Sep 17–20, 2020 267 (LV) 33%[i] 54% 2% 0% 1%[t] 9%
34%[k] 55% 0% 0% 2%[ai] 9%
Quinnipiac University Sep 10–14, 2020 707 (LV) 32% 64% 1%[aj] 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 433 (LV) 35% 58%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020 250 (LV) 33% 49% 11%[ak] 6%
Quinnipiac University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 392 (LV)[al] 30% 61% 6%[am] 3%
Colby College/SocialSphere Jul 18–24, 2020 425 (LV) 35% 55% 6%[an] 5%
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) 38% 58% 3%

Maine's 2nd congressional district[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

Aggregate polls[edit]

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270 to Win October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.4% 45.2% 8.4% Biden +1.2
Real Clear Politics September 17 – October 6, 2020 October 27, 2020 44.7% 45.0% 10.3% Trump +0.3

with Donald Trump and Joe Biden[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
Change Research Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 475 (LV) ± 4.6% 46%[i] 47% 4% 1% 0%[ao] 1%
50%[ap] 50%
Emerson College Oct 29–31, 2020 301 (LV) 47% 50% 3%[af] 0%
SurveyUSA/FairVote Oct 23–27, 2020 509 (LV) 45%[i] 48% 2% 2% 1%[j] 2%
49%[aq] 51%
Colby College Oct 21–25, 2020 453 (LV) 42% 46% 4%[m] 9%
Pan Atlantic Research Oct 2–6, 2020 300 (LV) ± 6.4% 43% 47% 6%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020 234 (LV) 49% 41% 2% 1% 1%[ar] 3%
Colby College Sep 17–23, 2020 425 (LV) 43% 46% 3%[as] 8%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe Sep 17–20, 2020 233 (LV) 45%[i] 47% 0% 0% 1%[at] 6%
45%[k] 47% 0% 0% 1%[au] 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[1] Sep 11–16, 2020 440 (LV) 45%[v] 47%
Quinnipiac University Sep 10–14, 2020 476 (LV) 44% 53% 0%[y] 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 367 (LV) 45% 49%
Left of Centre PAC[B] Aug 25–28, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 48% 3%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020 249 (LV) 38% 39% 12%[av] 11%
Quinnipiac University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 382 (RV)[al] 45% 44% 6%[ab] 5%
Colby College/SocialSphere Jul 18–24, 2020 449 (LV) 42% 45% 4%[m] 9%
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) 46% 49% 4%
Former candidates
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 52% 5%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51%
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52%
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 52% 7%
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 53%
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52%
with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) 38% 58% 3%
with Kamala Harris in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) 39% 57% 4%
with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) 39% 57% 4%
with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) 39% 57% 3%
with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) 49% 44% 7%
with Kamala Harris in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) 49% 43% 8%
with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) 47% 49% 4%
with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) 48% 47% 5%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere [2] Feb 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 37% 30%[aw]
with Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research Mar 4–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 27% 53% 19%[ax]
with Generic Democrat in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere [3] Feb 10–13, 2020 515 (LV) 28% 41% 31%[ay]
with Generic Democrat in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere [4] Feb 10–13, 2020 493 (LV) 41% 34% 28%[az]

Results[edit]

Statewide (2 electoral votes)[edit]

2020 United States presidential election in Maine[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
435,072 53.09% +5.26%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
360,737 44.02% −0.85%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
14,152 1.73% −3.36%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
8,230 1.00% −0.91%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
1,183 0.14% N/A
Write-in 87 0.01% N/A
Total votes 819,461 100.00%
Democratic win

1st congressional district (1 electoral vote)[edit]

2020 United States presidential election in Maine's 1st congressional district[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
266,376 60.11% +6.15%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
164,045 37.02% −2.13%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
7,343 1.66% −3.05%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
4,654 1.05% −0.87%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
649 0.15% N/A
Write-in 45 0.01% N/A
Total votes 443,112 100.00%
Democratic win

2nd congressional district (1 electoral vote)[edit]

2020 United States presidential election in Maine's 2nd congressional district[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
196,692 52.26% +1.00%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
168,696 44.82% +3.84%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
6,809 1.81% −3.71%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
3,576 0.95% −0.94%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
534 0.14% N/A
Write-in 42 0.01% N/A
Total votes 376,349 100.00%
Republican win

By county[edit]

Vote breakdown by county[28]
Joe Biden
Democrat
Donald Trump
Republican
Other Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Androscoggin 27,617 47.04% 29,268 49.85% 2,476 4.17% 1,651 −2.78% 59,361
Aroostook 13,956 39.04% 21,080 58.97% 1,174 3.24% 7,124 −19.67% 36,210
Cumberland 128,759 66.45% 59,584 30.75% 7,571 3.86% 69,175 35.31% 195,914
Franklin 8,069 45.85% 8,754 49.74% 776 4.41% 685 −3.89% 17,599
Hancock 19,369 54.83% 14,982 42.41% 1,325 3.71% 4,387 12.30% 35,676
Kennebec 34,902 48.57% 34,721 48.32% 2,992 4.12% 181 0.25% 72,615
Knox 15,110 59.38% 9,982 38.16% 940 3.61% 5,128 19.70% 26,032
Lincoln 12,684 53.76% 10,256 43.47% 917 3.84% 2,428 10.18% 23,857
Oxford 14,755 44.06% 17,698 52.83% 1,357 4.01% 2,943 −8.70% 33,810
Penobscot 37,713 44.23% 44,825 52.57% 3,595 4.17% 7,112 −8.26% 86,133
Piscataquis 3,517 35.50% 6,143 62.00% 336 3.36% 2,626 −26.27% 9,996
Sagadahoc 13,528 56.28% 9,755 40.58% 997 4.11% 3,773 15.54% 24,280
Somerset 10,199 36.98% 16,644 60.35% 1,030 3.70% 6,445 −23.12% 27,873
Waldo 12,345 50.76% 11,196 46.03% 1,025 4.17% 1,149 4.68% 24,566
Washington 6,761 38.95% 10,194 58.73% 615 3.50% 3,433 −19.54% 17,570
York 71,189 54.90% 54,817 42.28% 5,036 3.84% 16,372 12.49% 131,042
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[edit]

By congressional district[edit]

Joe Biden won the 1st district as the incumbent Democratic representative was re-elected. Donald Trump won the 2nd district despite the incumbent Democratic representative being re-elected.

District Biden Trump Representative
1st 60.11% 37.02% Chellie Pingree
2nd 44.82% 52.26% Jared Golden

Analysis[edit]

Biden carried Maine by a 9.1% margin over Trump, improving over Hillary Clinton's 3% win margin in 2016. Biden handily carried Maine's 1st congressional district by 23%, while Trump carried its 2nd congressional district by 7.4%, winning a single electoral vote from the state. This marked the first election in history in which Maine and Nebraska both split their electoral votes. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Biden earned a majority statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump earned a majority in the 2nd district. Biden narrowly flipped Kennebec County (home to the state capital, Augusta) four years after Clinton lost it. All other counties favored the same party they did in 2016.[29]

Maine is located in New England, an area that has become a Democratic Party stronghold. It was once a classic Rockefeller Republican state, but social issues have moved it to the Democratic column. The last Republican to win all its electoral votes was George H. W. Bush in 1988. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Maine came from liberals, with Biden winning whites 54%–44%, including 56% of white women. Biden was even competitive with Trump among Maine's gun owners, a traditionally Republican interest group, capturing 42% of their vote to Trump's 57%.[30]

This was the first presidential election since 2004 in which Maine's 2nd congressional district backed the losing candidate, and the 2nd district is the only part of the so-called Blue Wall which Trump won in 2020, referring to states and electoral-vote areas that voted Democrat in every election from 1992 to 2012; Biden thus became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the White House without carrying this district. Biden also became the first Democrat since 1892 to win the White House without carrying Androscoggin County, the first since 1976 to do so without carrying Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Penobscot, or Washington counties, and the first since 1992 to do so without carrying Somerset County.

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the date of the election.
  2. ^ a b Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
  3. ^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ Did not vote with 1%; "Don't recall" and would not vote with 0%
  6. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  7. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Standard VI response
  10. ^ a b c De La Fuente (A) with 1%
  11. ^ a b c d e Reassigning the second and third preferences of non-Biden/Trump voters
  12. ^ a b "No second choice"/"no third choice" with 1%
  13. ^ a b c d "One of the minor party candidates" with 4%
  14. ^ "All other candidates" with 6%
  15. ^ "Refused" with 2%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
  16. ^ Ressigning the second preferences of Hawkins and Jorgensen voters
  17. ^ "Refused" with 2%; De La Fuente (A), "No second preference" and "Someone else" with 1%; Hawkins (G) with 0%; Jorgensen (L) with no voters
  18. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  19. ^ "A minor party candidate" with 4%
  20. ^ a b "Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and "Other" with 0%
  21. ^ "Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and Hawkins (G) with 0%; Jorgensen (L) and "Other" with no voters
  22. ^ a b Topline after Ranked-Choice Voting is used
  23. ^ "Someone else" with 0%; would not vote with 1%
  24. ^ Includes "Refused"
  25. ^ a b "Someone else" with 0%
  26. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  27. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; "Prefer not to say" and would not vote with 1%
  28. ^ a b "Someone else" and would not vote with 3%
  29. ^ "Some other candidate" with 7%
  30. ^ If only Biden and Trump were candidates
  31. ^ "One of the minor party candidates" with 5%
  32. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
  33. ^ "Refused" and "Someone else" with 1%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
  34. ^ "A minor party candidate" with 5%
  35. ^ "Refused" with 2%; Fuente (A) with 0%; "Other" with no voters
  36. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  37. ^ "Someone else" with 9%; "Prefer not to say" with 2%; Would not vote with 1%
  38. ^ a b Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  39. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  40. ^ "One of the minor party candidates" with 6%
  41. ^ Did not vote, "Don't recall" and would not vote with 0%
  42. ^ After three rounds of ranked choice voting
  43. ^ With Ranked Choice Voting
  44. ^ "Refused" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
  45. ^ "A minor party candidate" with 3%
  46. ^ "Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Fuente (A) with no voters
  47. ^ "Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and "Other" with no voters
  48. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; "Prefer not to say" and would not vote with 2%
  49. ^ "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" and "Undecided at this time" with 15%
  50. ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 15%; Undecided with 5%
  51. ^ "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 16%
  52. ^ "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 14%; "Undecided at this time" with 14%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  2. ^ The pollster exclusively supports Democratic candidates

References[edit]

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Further reading[edit]

External links[edit]